>> 廣發(fā)證券-廣發(fā)宏觀(guān)：6月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議紀(jì)要的關(guān)鍵信息-240704
| 上傳日期： |
2024/7/4 |
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587KB |
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pdf 共5頁(yè) |
來(lái)源： |
廣發(fā)證券 |
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作者： |
郭磊,陳嘉荔 |
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此報(bào)告為加密報(bào)告，僅限高級(jí)會(huì)員查看 |
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報(bào)告摘要：
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)每年召開(kāi)8次議息會(huì)議，會(huì)議紀(jì)要（Minutes）是對(duì)政策形成過(guò)程和政策背后邏輯的詳細(xì)說(shuō)明，一般在會(huì)議三周后公布。6月12日議息會(huì)議的決定是利率不變（5.25-5.5%的政策利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間）、正式開(kāi)始放緩縮表（將美債月度贖回上限從600億美元降至每月250億美元）。7月3日公布的議息會(huì)議紀(jì)要展示了當(dāng)時(shí)決策背后的更多細(xì)節(jié)1。
一是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員認(rèn)為通脹回落節(jié)奏較去年12月預(yù)期的更慢，雖然近期有一些進(jìn)展（“further progress”），但他們?nèi)孕枰嘈畔⒆C明（additional information）通脹正在持續(xù)向目標(biāo)水平靠近才能降息；表述相較于5月紀(jì)要內(nèi)容（可能進(jìn)一步收緊貨幣政策）略偏鴿派。二是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員內(nèi)部對(duì)還需要保持高利率多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間仍有分歧，一些（several）官員指出非農(nóng)機(jī)構(gòu)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)可能高估（overstate）了就業(yè)市場(chǎng)情況，多位（a number of）官員表示就業(yè)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)回到疫情前水平，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步弱化可能導(dǎo)致裁員率加快上升。三是，一些（some）與會(huì)者認(rèn)為長(zhǎng)期中性利率較疫情前更高，意味著現(xiàn)階段貨幣政策可能并沒(méi)有預(yù)期的那么緊，這也是為何美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在6月SEP中將長(zhǎng)期利率預(yù)期從2.6%上調(diào)至2.8%。
第一，6月會(huì)議中，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員總體認(rèn)為整體通脹回落節(jié)奏較去年12月預(yù)期的更慢，雖然近期有一些進(jìn)展（“modest further progress”），但他們?nèi)孕枰嘈畔⒆C明（additional information）通脹正在持續(xù)向目標(biāo)水平靠近才能降息；這樣的表述相較于5月紀(jì)要內(nèi)容（可能進(jìn)一步收緊貨幣政策）偏鴿派。5月會(huì)議中，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員總體認(rèn)為政策利率處于合理位置（well-positioned），一季度通脹數(shù)據(jù)反復(fù)導(dǎo)致一些（various）與會(huì)者表示，若通脹進(jìn)一步回升，他們?cè)敢膺M(jìn)一步收緊政策（tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize）。
“In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants observed that incoming data indicated continued solid growth in economic activity and a strong labor market while also pointing to modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective in recent months”
“Participants noted that progress in reducing inflation had been slower this year than they had expected last December. They emphasized that they did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.”
第二，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員內(nèi)部對(duì)還需要保持高利率多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間仍有分歧；6月點(diǎn)陣圖已經(jīng)反應(yīng)這一信息。6月點(diǎn)陣圖中降息指引較預(yù)期偏鷹，其中，4位官員認(rèn)為今年可能不降息，7位官員認(rèn)為今年有一次降息，8位官員認(rèn)為有兩次降息。
“Participants noted the uncertainty associated with the economic outlook and with how long it would be appropriate to maintain a restrictive policy stance. ”
“Several participants also suggested that the establishment survey may have overstated actual job gains”。
“A number of participants noted that, although the labor market remained strong, the ratio of vacancies tounemployment had returned to pre-pandemic levels and there was some risk that further cooling in labor marketconditions could be associated with an increased pace of layoffs”。
從貝弗里奇曲線(xiàn)的位置來(lái)看，現(xiàn)階段確實(shí)處于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的拐點(diǎn)?！癮 further we
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