>> 國(guó)泰君安-中煤能源-1898.HK-Continue to Increase Spot Sales Ratio, Maintain “Accumulate”-120512
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2012/5/15
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吳逸超
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The contribution of new coal mine capacity is slower than our expectation, resulting in a lower than previously expected coal production volume growth in FY12-13. We expect the consolidated commercial coal production volume to increase by 14.0%, 11.5% and 2.1% YoY in FY12/13/14 to 112Mt/121Mt/124Mt, respectively. The spot thermal coal sales ratio is expected to continue to increase to reach 71.6% in FY14, which help increasing the ASP of the overall coal sales. We expect that the spot thermal coal sales ratio is estimated to increase 59.6%/67%/71.6% in FY12/13/14. During FY12/13/14, we believe that the contract coal price of China Coal will grow at a relatively steady rate, while the spot coal price may stay relatively stable. We expect the ASP of spot thermal coal to change by -3%/3%/2% YoY and the ASP of contract thermal coal to change by 8%/5%/5% YoY in FY12/13/14. We cut our FY12-13 EPS estimates by 22.0% and 13.5% respectively. Our current EPS estimates for FY12-14 are RMB0.800, RMB1.036 and RMB1.072. The last close of China Coal is HK$8.14, representing 8.2x/6.4x/6.2x FY12/13/14 PER and 0.98x/0.87x/0.79x FY12/13/14 P/B. We iterate the “Accumulate” rating for China Coal and revised down TP to HK$10.87, representing 11.0x/8.5x/8.2x FY12/13/14 PER. 新礦井的產(chǎn)能貢獻(xiàn)慢于我們?cè)鹊念A(yù)期，導(dǎo)致12/13財(cái)年低于原先預(yù)期的煤炭產(chǎn)量增速。我們現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)12/13/14財(cái)年的合并商品煤產(chǎn)量將分別同比增長(zhǎng)14.0%，11.5%和2.1%至1.12億噸、1.21億噸和1.24億噸
